Nowadays, we witness the arrival of the robots to our daily life. Robots are mechanical minds bringing to us more artificial intelligence than mechanical hands. However they are being programmed to follow a broader spectrum of actions than never before.
I believe that we, as humans, have been developing tools through all our history because, in general, “tools” tend to be more reliable and tireless than our “human muscles”. A typical example here is the change that took place in transportation during the 20th century. Human transportation shifted from animals, e.g. horses, to machines, i.e. cars, etc. We shifted from 40 km/h on a horse in the year 1900, to 400 km/h on a Maglev train in the year 2000.
As a consequence of the replacement of human labor with “mechanical muscles” people will tend to provide the human genius within a particular specialization. Programmers and engineers of robotics and artificial intelligence program cars becoming automatically driven, some of people’s workload to be automatically done, and even games could be played by machines. This technological evolution is taking us to a place where we never were before. The questions arise when some evolutionists state that human brains will be less in demand… and we all wonder whether this is true or not.
I would recommend watching the following video “Humans need not apply”, from which I got the inspiration to write this post.
As in the video, the use of the metaphor in which two horses discuss whether “better new technology (cars) would make better jobs for horses” in the year 1900 can be eye-opening. The fact that the population of horses in the world picked in 1915 means that, after the arrival of the automobile, they were not so needed anymore as mean of transport. It is difficult to imagine how this tendency will affect the humankind. Some efforts are being made studying the exponential growth of technology and the reach of the “Technological Singularity”.
Technological singularity is a hypothetical event related to the advent of artificial general intelligence (also known as “strong AI”). Such a computer, computer network, or robot would theoretically be capable of recursive self-improvement (redesigning itself), or of designing and building computers or robots better than itself. Repetitions of this cycle would likely result in a runaway effect – an intelligence explosion – where smart machines design successive generations of increasingly powerful machines, creating intelligence far exceeding human intellectual capacity and control. (Wikipedia)
In the last 20 years, we saw robots working cost-effectively only in narrow situations. Toyota’s assembly lines set as examples of progress in the past. Today, a new generation of robots can take decisions and interact totally autonomously within their environment.
As an example, the following product from RethinkRobotics; our robot friend “Baxter“, is not pre-programmed for only one specific job. He is openly ready to interact and decide autonomously. Enjoy him in action in the following video.
On Google’s side, Larry Page explained in this video TED speech called “Where is Google going next?” the capabilities of the artificial intelligence algorithms being developed in Google (as of 2014). They designed a computer program which able to play video games without any other input than the colors of the screen!
Another interesting new development is the “Self-Driving Car”. It is a project by Google involving the development of technology for autonomous cars which are being tested in several US states.
On May 28, 2014, a new prototype of a driverless car was presented without neither steering wheel nor pedals.
Considering that there are 70 millions of jobs related to transportation in the world, I wonder how these technologies will impact on the evolution of logistics.
Tiny auto-robots have taken over Amazon’s warehouses so substantially that Amazon had to buy their manufacturer Kiva Systems as a strategic move to secure their supply chain automation exclusivity as they became a strategic advantage for the company. In this official video from Amazon we can see many human workers: Amazon customer service. However, the reality of its warehouses looks more like in this other video:
If we take the stock markets, computers manage the decision taking and the flow of money in the world every single moment. High frequency trading uses proprietary trading strategies carried out by computers to move in and out of positions in seconds or fractions of a second. Broker firms are far more interested in communications speed than in standardized human brains from MBA’s schools. Broker-dealers now compete on routing order flow directly, in the fastest and most efficient manner, beating rivals in speed.
White collar jobs are not safe heavens for this revolution anymore. Could you believe that even computers are being taught how to learn, on their own, how to code their own programs?
A foreseen influence of the robotics on the economy and our society seems inevitable. Examples are not set to express that automation will have a negative impact on our lives, but to understand the trends of current and future developments. Automation is considered a tool to produce abundance with little effort. Our society will change, and there will be benefits and drawbacks as there will be effectively less efforts to make! r(did i say work?!)
And what about construction jobs? check out the following video of FastBricks Robot Animation.
This picture of the founders of Google in a garage in Menlo Park, in California, in 1998, is not able to reveal by itself the threat that Google posed to Microsoft in the IT industry on those days. Now it makes it more realistic reading how Ken Auletta described in his book ‘Googled’ the following reflection from Bill Gates in a visit he paid to the founder of Microsoft:
“In early 1998, Microsoft appeared impregnable when I visited Bill Gates in Redmond, Washington. What competitive challenge, I asked, did he most fear? Gates did not recite the usual litany of prominent foes – Netscape, Sun Microsystems, Oracle, Apple. Instead, he said, “I fear someone in a garage who is designing something completely new”
Today, we are familiar with the recurrent use Google to search in the internet for every piece of information we need. However, it is not easy to imagine that one day they might be replaced by some else who is today working in a garage. In the 2010’s, there are four American companies leading the competition in internet, Google, Apple, Amazon and Facebook. At the same level we consider in Asia, Samsung from Korea and Alibaba, from China. Richard S. Tedlow, a recognised historian and professor says: “Internet companies are actually competing head-to-head in HHRR in the capture of talent. Historically, that company which wins the war for talent, wins the technological war”.
I guess these companies are wondering who is working today, out there, in a garage, creating something completely new.